H21: slow start recovered and close

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H21: slow start recovered and close PROMISING amber

   because NEGATIVE: slow away last time, got back into it and finished within 5 lengths. Looks unlucky; is it a habit?

   last_slow_start = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.88 on 1,157 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -14.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H21: slow start recovered and close

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3950.87

   Later half7620.89

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat up to a mile: A/E 0.87 on 807 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -6.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H21: slow start recovered and close

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2970.84

   Later half5100.88

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   slow in 2+ of last 3: A/E 1.11 on 269 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return -6.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On H21: slow start recovered and close

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half691.04

   Later half2001.13

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H21: slow start recovered and close Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [slow in 2+ of last 3] AMBER A/E 1.11 on 269 bets (broad NEGATIVE)