Threads · seasonal · H22-horse-for-the-season
H22: horse for the season
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 52913 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H22: horse for the season KILLED red
because Two or more earlier wins at this time of year (this month or either side), and at least half its wins.
month_wins >= 2 AND month_wins * 2 >= prior_wins
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 52,913 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.01 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +3.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On H22: horse for the season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2212,7621.022023 to a year ago29,1631.01Last year10,9881.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H22: horse for the season Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 52913 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Two or more earlier wins at this time of year (this month or either side), and at least half its wins.