H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H224: midwinter break then back in january or february PROMISING negative

   because Jumps handicap in January and February after a break of 60 to 149 days: missed the worst of the ground on purpose and is being brought back for the spring; the market reads an interrupted season.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.90 on 3,208 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.98 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return -25.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1420.81

   2023 to a year ago1,6180.98

   Last year448

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.82 on 1,270 bets, by period 0.76 · 0.92 · 0.62. info

   Betfair SP return -52.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224680.76

   2023 to a year ago6290.92

   Last year173

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.91 on 1,875 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.00 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -12.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226530.80

   2023 to a year ago9571.00

   Last year265

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   good or good to soft: A/E 1.04 on 1,302 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.04 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -27.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223431.07

   2023 to a year ago7961.04

   Last year163

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H224: midwinter break then back in january or february Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [chase] NEGATIVE A/E 0.824 on 1270 bets (broad NEGATIVE)