H225: festival runner out again in april

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H225: festival runner out again in april PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: ran at Cheltenham 14 to 50 days ago and runs again in April. The Festival is the hardest race of the season and was the target; the form reads as the best in the field.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.92 on 1,454 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.92 · 0.85. info

   Betfair SP return -37.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H225: festival runner out again in april

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224850.95

   2023 to a year ago6950.92

   Last year2740.85

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite or second favourite: A/E 0.99 on 471 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.06 · 0.86. info

   Betfair SP return -10.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H225: festival runner out again in april

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221730.96

   2023 to a year ago2201.06

   Last year78

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   unplaced at Cheltenham: A/E 0.84 on 1,121 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.80 · 0.79. info

   Betfair SP return -42.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H225: festival runner out again in april

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223600.93

   2023 to a year ago5420.80

   Last year219

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   at Aintree: A/E 0.92 on 551 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.86 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -28.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H225: festival runner out again in april

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221640.93

   2023 to a year ago2760.86

   Last year111

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not at Aintree: A/E 0.92 on 903 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.95 · 0.77. info

   Betfair SP return -43.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H225: festival runner out again in april

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223210.96

   2023 to a year ago4190.95

   Last year1630.77

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H225: festival runner out again in april Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [unplaced at Cheltenham] NEGATIVE A/E 0.841 on 1121 bets (broad NEGATIVE)