Threads · stamina-control · H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks

H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 4134 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks PROMISING negative
because Control for H183: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy, at a track that is NOT stiff or stamina-testing. If this also beats the market the edge is the mud and the step up, not the track.
```
(track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.93 on 5,765 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.94 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -26.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,2260.91
2023 to a year ago2,6970.94
Last year842
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.93 on 4,134 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.94 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return -30.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,6090.90
2023 to a year ago1,8770.94
Last year648
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.94 on 1,617 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.95 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -10.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226100.95
2023 to a year ago8170.95
Last year190
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 4134 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

Control for H183: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy, at a track that is NOT stiff or stamina-testing. If this also beats the market the edge is the mud and the step up, not the track.

H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 4134 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks PROMISING negative
because Control for H183: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy, at a track that is NOT stiff or stamina-testing. If this also beats the market the edge is the mud and the step up, not the track.
```
(track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.93 on 5,765 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.94 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -26.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,2260.91
2023 to a year ago2,6970.94
Last year842
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.93 on 4,134 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.94 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return -30.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,6090.90
2023 to a year ago1,8770.94
Last year648
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.94 on 1,617 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.95 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -10.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226100.95
2023 to a year ago8170.95
Last year190
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 4134 bets (broad NEGATIVE)