H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes PROMISING amber

   because Control for H181: last win over a furlong and a half further, on soft or heavy, at a track WITHOUT a stiff finish. Mud should do what the hill does: turn stamina into speed.

   track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 5,229 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.10 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +0.3%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,5891.00

   2023 to a year ago2,7341.10

   Last year906

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat, six furlongs or less: A/E 1.20 on 100 bets, by period 1.29. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2221–

   2023 to a year ago601.29

   Last year19–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.06 on 3,628 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.12 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1671.01

   2023 to a year ago1,8661.12

   Last year595

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   heavy: A/E 1.04 on 1,410 bets, by period 0.83 · 1.18 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -29.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223840.83

   2023 to a year ago7121.18

   Last year314

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat, six furlongs or less] AMBER A/E 1.196 on 100 bets (broad AMBER)