Threads · hidden-fitness · H26-all-weather-fit-at-the-start-of-the-turf-season
H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5843 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season KILLED red
because March-April on turf: a horse with a run on the all-weather in the last 45 days is fit; the turf returners are not.
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND last_surface = 'AW' AND days_since_last_run <= 45
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,843 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.00 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -8.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,1031.022023 to a year ago2,7351.00Last year1,005Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5843 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
March-April on turf: a horse with a run on the all-weather in the last 45 days is fit; the turf returners are not.