Threads · seasonal · H29-fresh-for-the-spring
H29: fresh for the spring
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 7166 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H29: fresh for the spring KILLED red
because Jumps, March-April: at most two runs in the last 150 days, so not ground down by a winter campaign.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 <= 2 AND prior_runs >= 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 7,166 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.06 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -21.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H29: fresh for the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,1380.942023 to a year ago3,8481.06Last year1,1800.98Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H29: fresh for the spring Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 7166 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Jumps, March-April: at most two runs in the last 150 days, so not ground down by a winter campaign.