Threads · seasonal · H30-hard-winter-campaign
H30: hard winter campaign
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 3082 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H30: hard winter campaign KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: jumps, March-April, six or more runs in the last 150 days. Over the top by spring.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (3, 4) AND runs_150 >= 6made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 3,082 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.95 · 1.20. info
Betfair SP return +31.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H30: hard winter campaign
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,2480.932023 to a year ago1,3700.95Last year4641.20Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H30: hard winter campaign Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 3082 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: jumps, March-April, six or more runs in the last 150 days. Over the top by spring.