H35: eased last time

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H35: eased last time PROMISING negative

   because Eased when its chance had gone last time: the beaten distance is exaggerated.

   last_eased = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 1,585 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -8.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H35: eased last time

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7070.91

   Later half8780.98

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.99 on 1,173 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return -1.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H35: eased last time

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5390.89

   Later half6341.07

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   down in class: A/E 0.90 on 227 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return +19.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H35: eased last time

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half850.79

   Later half1420.96

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.94 on 1,142 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -6.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H35: eased last time

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5050.91

   Later half6370.96

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H35: eased last time Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [14/1 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.94 on 1142 bets (broad NEGATIVE)