H37: closer in a race full of front runners

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H37: closer in a race full of front runners PROMISING negative

   because Held up last time, in a race today where three or more runners led last time: the pace should collapse for it.

   last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.89 on 1,424 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -20.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H37: closer in a race full of front runners

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5810.83

   Later half8430.93

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.95 on 841 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -29.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H37: closer in a race full of front runners

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1940.98

   Later half6470.93

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.80 on 565 bets, by period 0.73 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -6.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H37: closer in a race full of front runners

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3690.73

   Later half1960.93

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   strong finish last time: A/E 0.57 on 173 bets, by period 0.64 · 0.53. info

   Betfair SP return -45.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H37: closer in a race full of front runners

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half650.64

   Later half1080.53

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H37: closer in a race full of front runners Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.803 on 565 bets (broad NEGATIVE)