H39: market has given up

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H39: market has given up PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: beaten favourite last time, 10/1 or bigger today. The market has seen something.

   last_was_favourite = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND sp_decimal >= 11

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 12,691 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.92 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return +11.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H39: market has given up

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224,9750.90

   2023 to a year ago5,5990.92

   Last year2,1171.10

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   same class or lower: A/E 0.93 on 5,427 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.83 · 1.12. info

   Betfair SP return +3.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H39: market has given up

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,1110.96

   2023 to a year ago2,4190.83

   Last year8971.12

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   within 30 days: A/E 0.87 on 5,760 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.83 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -16.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H39: market has given up

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,3570.86

   2023 to a year ago2,4530.83

   Last year9500.97

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H39: market has given up Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [within 30 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.866 on 5760 bets (broad RED)