Threads · handicap · H41-out-again-under-a-penalty
H41: out again under a penalty
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 4059 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H41: out again under a penalty KILLED red
because Won last time and runs in a handicap within 7 days, before the handicapper can raise it properly.
last_position = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 7 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 4,059 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.05 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -4.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H41: out again under a penalty
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,6620.962023 to a year ago1,7311.05Last year6661.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H41: out again under a penalty Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 4059 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Won last time and runs in a handicap within 7 days, before the handicapper can raise it properly.