H48: yard good at dropping in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H48: yard good at dropping in trip PROMISING amber

   because Down 20%+ in trip from a yard whose earlier runners dropping back beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 4,409 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.10 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return +4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H48: yard good at dropping in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1691.00

   2023 to a year ago2,3821.10

   Last year8580.91

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.10 on 3,322 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.18 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return +7.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H48: yard good at dropping in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228541.09

   2023 to a year ago1,8201.18

   Last year6480.87

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.99 on 3,090 bets, by period 0.88 · 1.09 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return +19.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H48: yard good at dropping in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228100.88

   2023 to a year ago1,6441.09

   Last year6360.90

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.11 on 1,311 bets, by period 1.20 · 1.12 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -38.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H48: yard good at dropping in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223551.20

   2023 to a year ago7341.12

   Last year2220.93

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H48: yard good at dropping in trip Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.115 on 1311 bets (broad RED)