H49: jumps run into a flat race

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H49: jumps run into a flat race KILLED amber

   because Established Flat horse (5+ Flat runs) whose last run, within 45 days, was over jumps: fit, and the form line is disguised.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.09 on 3,246 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.16 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -26.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H49: jumps run into a flat race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229961.09

   2023 to a year ago1,6921.16

   Last year5580.88

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.08 on 2,998 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.16 · 0.77. info

   Betfair SP return -31.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H49: jumps run into a flat race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229241.14

   2023 to a year ago1,5561.16

   Last year5180.77

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   12 furlongs and further: A/E 1.05 on 2,041 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.09 · 0.86. info

   Betfair SP return -13.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H49: jumps run into a flat race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226021.12

   2023 to a year ago1,0441.09

   Last year3950.86

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.04 on 1,555 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.15 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return -20.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H49: jumps run into a flat race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224950.93

   2023 to a year ago7851.15

   Last year2750.91

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H49: jumps run into a flat race Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.089 on 3246 bets (broad AMBER)