H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight KILLED amber

   because Held up and beaten at a sharp track last time; today a Flat track with a straight of 4 furlongs or more to use.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND last_run_style = 'held_up' AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND track_straight_furlongs >= 4 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 1,377 bets, by period 0.65 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +12.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.65 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1410.65

   Later half1,2361.11

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   stayed on last time: A/E 1.07 on 700 bets, by period 0.82 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return -5.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half700.82

   Later half6301.09

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.09 on 1,077 bets, by period 0.56 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +31.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.56 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1130.56

   Later half9641.15

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.086 on 1077 bets (broad AMBER)