H55: hereford fresh on quick ground

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H55: hereford fresh on quick ground KILLED amber

   because Hereford, good or faster: horses back from 150-249 days off at under 13/2 (the rule frozen on 2026-10-12).

   course = 'HEREFORD' AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 150 AND 249 AND sp_decimal < 7.5 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.70 on 89 bets, by period 2.03. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H55: hereford fresh on quick ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2228–

   2023 to a year ago442.03

   Last year17–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H55: hereford fresh on quick ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.704 on 89 bets (broad AMBER)