H56: older horse new to fences

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H56: older horse new to fences KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: aged 8 or more with 3 or fewer chases, in a novice or beginners' chase. Backed for experience it does not have over fences.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1 OR race_name LIKE '%Beginners%') AND age >= 8 AND chase_runs <= 3

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 4,183 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.95 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +16.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H56: older horse new to fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,2690.90

   2023 to a year ago1,4650.95

   Last year4491.15

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   the oldest hurdle campaigners (10+ hurdle runs): A/E 0.95 on 846 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.94 · 1.12. info

   Betfair SP return -3.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H56: older horse new to fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221490.82

   2023 to a year ago5050.94

   Last year192

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   priced under 13/2: A/E 0.97 on 1,499 bets, by period 0.90 · 1.01 · 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return +21.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H56: older horse new to fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227670.90

   2023 to a year ago5851.01

   Last year1471.16

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H56: older horse new to fences Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [priced under 13/2] RED A/E 0.972 on 1499 bets (broad RED)