H57: easier on both counts

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H57: easier on both counts KILLED red

   because Beaten last time; today down in class AND down 10%+ in trip. Two things made easier at once is a plan.

   race_class > last_race_class AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards * 0.9 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 20,900 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.02 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +25.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.02). Zone: all. On H57: easier on both counts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228,4631.01

   2023 to a year ago9,2511.02

   Last year3,1861.03

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H57: easier on both counts Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 20900 bets (broad RED)