H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H58: lone front runner at a sharp track KILLED red

   because The only runner that led last time, at a sharp track where the lead is hard to take back.

   last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.96 on 1,365 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -11.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5681.05

   Later half7970.90

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.96 on 811 bets, by period 1.16 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -6.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2931.16

   Later half5180.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.95 on 537 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -18.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2710.95

   Later half2660.96

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   no other front-end runner either: A/E 1.01 on 236 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -6.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1191.12

   Later half1170.90

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H58: lone front runner at a sharp track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [no other front-end runner either] RED A/E 1.006 on 236 bets (broad RED)