H63: course likes first visit

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H63: course likes first visit KILLED red

   because First run at the course at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. The mirror: tracks with nothing to learn.

   cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.96 on 1,901 bets, by period 0.96. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H63: course likes first visit

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,9010.96

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 0.95 on 1,166 bets, by period 0.95. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H63: course likes first visit

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1660.95

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.97 on 992 bets, by period 0.97. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H63: course likes first visit

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229920.97

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.98 on 890 bets, by period 0.98. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H63: course likes first visit

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228900.98

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H63: course likes first visit Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [Flat] RED A/E 0.977 on 890 bets (broad RED)