Threads · course · H64-course-likes-favourite
H64: course likes favourite
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.029 on 2589 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H64: course likes favourite KILLED red
because Favourite at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks where the form works out: fair, galloping, few hard-luck stories.
cp_favourite_runs >= 60 AND cp_favourite_wins >= 1.25 * cp_favourite_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 2,589 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.02 · 1.20. info
Betfair SP return +14.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.18). Zone: all. On H64: course likes favourite
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,6231.022023 to a year ago8361.02Last year1301.20Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H64: course likes favourite Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.029 on 2589 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Favourite at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks where the form works out: fair, galloping, few hard-luck stories.