H73: course likes young

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H73: course likes young KILLED red

   because Young horse (3yo on the Flat, 5 or under over jumps) at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that suit the unfurnished or the precocious.

   cp_young_runs >= 60 AND cp_young_wins >= 1.25 * cp_young_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 535 bets, by period 0.94. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H73: course likes young

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225350.94

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 0.90 on 349 bets, by period 0.90. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H73: course likes young

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223490.90

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.87 on 281 bets, by period 0.87. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H73: course likes young

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222810.87

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.90 on 97 bets, by period 0.90. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H73: course likes young

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22970.90

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H73: course likes young Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.941 on 535 bets (broad RED)