Threads · course · H79-jockey-beats-the-market-at-this-course
H79: jockey beats the market at this course
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 50494 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H79: jockey beats the market at this course KILLED red
because The jockey's earlier rides at this course beat the market by 30%+ (40+ rides): rides the track better than most.
jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.3 * jc_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 50,494 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.99 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -1.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H79: jockey beats the market at this course
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2215,6171.002023 to a year ago26,2720.99Last year8,6051.03Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H79: jockey beats the market at this course Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 50494 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
The jockey's earlier rides at this course beat the market by 30%+ (40+ rides): rides the track better than most.