H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course KILLED red

   because Both the trainer (25+ runners) and the jockey (40+ rides) have beaten the market here by 15%+.

   tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.15 * tc_exp AND jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.15 * jc_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 31,847 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.99 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +7.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228,2041.04

   2023 to a year ago17,3270.99

   Last year6,316

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 31847 bets (broad RED)