H81: back at the course of its last win

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H81: back at the course of its last win KILLED red

   because Beaten elsewhere last time; today back at the course where it last won.

   last_win_course = course_id AND last_course_id != course_id AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.97 on 31,455 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.97 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -9.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H81: back at the course of its last win

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229,7131.00

   2023 to a year ago15,6190.97

   Last year6,1230.94

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H81: back at the course of its last win Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.972 on 31455 bets (broad RED)