H92: irish yard raiding britain

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H92: irish yard raiding britain KILLED red

   because A yard that has run nine in ten of its horses in Ireland sends one to Britain. They do not travel for nothing.

   region = 'GB' AND t_ire_runs >= 50 AND t_ire_runs >= 9 * t_gb_runs

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,261 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.00 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H92: irish yard raiding britain

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,6841.02

   2023 to a year ago2,7361.00

   Last year8410.97

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H92: irish yard raiding britain Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5261 bets (broad RED)