H93: british yard raiding ireland

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H93: british yard raiding ireland PROMISING amber

   because The reverse: a British yard sending one to Ireland.

   region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.10 on 946 bets, by period 1.23 · 1.11 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -43.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H93: british yard raiding ireland

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222521.23

   2023 to a year ago4801.11

   Last year2140.89

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.09 on 302 bets, by period 1.50 · 1.17 · 0.53. info

   Betfair SP return -76.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.53 to 1.50. Zone: all. On H93: british yard raiding ireland

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22631.50

   2023 to a year ago1571.17

   Last year820.53

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.08 on 245 bets, by period 1.32 · 1.22 · 0.28. info

   Betfair SP return -60.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.28 to 1.32. Zone: all. On H93: british yard raiding ireland

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22521.32

   2023 to a year ago1281.22

   Last year650.28

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.11 on 676 bets, by period 1.22 · 1.08 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return -34.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.20). Zone: all. On H93: british yard raiding ireland

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221961.22

   2023 to a year ago3341.08

   Last year1461.02

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H93: british yard raiding ireland Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 676 bets (broad AMBER)