Threads · market · H94-beaten-at-odds-on
H94: beaten at odds on
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5009 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H94: beaten at odds on KILLED red
because Beaten at odds-on last time: the market was sure, and one defeat should not change the horse.
last_sp_decimal < 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,009 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.01 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +17.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H94: beaten at odds on
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,9150.992023 to a year ago2,1761.01Last year9181.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H94: beaten at odds on Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5009 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Beaten at odds-on last time: the market was sure, and one defeat should not change the horse.