H95: from a big field to a small one

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H95: from a big field to a small one PROMISING negative

   because Mid-division in a field of 14+ last time, in a field of 7 or fewer today: a simpler race.

   last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.93 on 4,779 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.91 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return -5.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H95: from a big field to a small one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,8460.97

   2023 to a year ago2,1430.91

   Last year7900.92

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.95 on 2,648 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.94 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -4.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H95: from a big field to a small one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,0180.97

   2023 to a year ago1,2000.94

   Last year4300.96

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.96 on 2,224 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.95 · 0.99. info

   Betfair SP return +1.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H95: from a big field to a small one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228430.95

   2023 to a year ago1,0060.95

   Last year3750.99

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.91 on 2,427 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.88 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -15.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H95: from a big field to a small one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229620.98

   2023 to a year ago1,0820.88

   Last year3830.84

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H95: from a big field to a small one Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.913 on 2427 bets (broad NEGATIVE)