H97: yard in form and fresh

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H97: yard in form and fresh PROMISING green

   because First run for 150+ days from a yard good with fresh horses AND winning at or above its prices in the last 30 days.

   tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.11 on 3,334 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.08 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return -2.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On H97: yard in form and fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2341.13

   2023 to a year ago1,5961.08

   Last year5041.17

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   October-November: A/E 1.16 on 914 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.08 · 1.40. info

   Betfair SP return +22.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.32). Zone: all. On H97: yard in form and fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224031.12

   2023 to a year ago3471.08

   Last year1641.40

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.11 on 1,449 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.09 · 1.27. info

   Betfair SP return +18.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.20). Zone: all. On H97: yard in form and fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225441.07

   2023 to a year ago6391.09

   Last year2661.27

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   priced under 13/2: A/E 1.08 on 1,240 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.05 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +25.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.19). Zone: all. On H97: yard in form and fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225721.05

   2023 to a year ago4911.05

   Last year1771.24

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H97: yard in form and fresh Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [October-November] GREEN A/E 1.158 on 914 bets (broad AMBER)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H97-yard-in-form-and-fresh (H97: yard in form and fresh) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.11 on 3334 bets (periods 1.13 / 1.08 / 1.17); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H97-yard-in-form-and-fresh