IQ00b: control two earlier runs in code

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ00b: control two earlier runs in code KILLED red

   because CONTROL: every jumps runner with two or more earlier runs with figures in today's code. Should be 1.00.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 21,111 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +5.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On IQ00b: control two earlier runs in code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8,8021.03

   Later half12,3091.02

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ00b: control two earlier runs in code Discovery → KILLEDimport: control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 21111 bets