IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: last run among the quarter that lost least speed at the obstacles but among the slowest quarter to recover. Looks a clean jumper, lacks rhythm.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.93 on 899 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -8.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4520.97

   Later half4470.89

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.80 on 287 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return -51.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1470.78

   Later half1400.82

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.94 on 798 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -10.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4130.95

   Later half3850.93

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.95 on 678 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return +1.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3241.04

   Later half3540.87

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.93 on 437 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.86. info

   Betfair SP return -23.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2141.00

   Later half2230.86

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.933 on 899 bets