IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure KILLED red

   because Second chase at 3m+ after a first that visibly failed: pulled up, beaten 15 lengths or more, or in the back half having lost two or more places late.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.80 on 172 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.80. info

   Betfair SP return -41.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1320.80

   Later half400.80

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.799 on 172 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ112-second-try-at-3m-after-a-visible-failure (IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.80 on 172 bets (periods 0.80 / 0.80).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ112-second-try-at-3m-after-a-visible-failure