IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed KILLED red

   because LOOK ONLY: second chase at 3m+ after a first that failed, front-loaded race or up with the pace but not both.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND ((f3_tilt > 0) != (((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))))

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.77 on 62 bets, by period 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return -62.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half431.15

   Later half19–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.769 on 62 bets