IQ143b: one off jumping error yes

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ143b: one off jumping error yes KILLED amber

   because LOOK: one-off jumping error in a chase, well beaten, and its Jump Index in earlier chases averaged in the better half of its fields.

   (race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.19 on 179 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.34. info

   Betfair SP return -1.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.23). Zone: all. On IQ143b: one off jumping error yes

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1091.11

   Later half701.34

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ143b: one off jumping error yes Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.186 on 179 bets