IQ151b: error in remark large cost

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ151b: error in remark large cost KILLED amber

   because Chase, beaten; jumping error in the remark, bottom quarter for ground gained.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 531 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return -18.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On IQ151b: error in remark large cost

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3991.04

   Later half1321.10

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ151b: error in remark large cost Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.057 on 531 bets