IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving PROMISING green

   because Chase: against its fields, both Jump Index and ground gained jumping were better in its latest chase than two or three chases back. The jumping comes right before the form does.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 2,252 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.00. info

   Betfair SP return +9.6%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.10. Zone: all. On IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half9921.10

   Later half1,2601.00

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   novice chase: A/E 0.99 on 299 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return +4.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.07. Zone: all. On IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1821.07

   Later half1170.88

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   four or fewer chases: A/E 1.08 on 626 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +9.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3461.12

   Later half2801.03

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   did not win last time: A/E 0.99 on 1,722 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return +10.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7471.04

   Later half9750.95

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [four or fewer chases] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 626 bets

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving (IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 2252 bets (periods 1.10 / 1.00); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving