IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip PROMISING negative

   because Has averaged in the top 35% of its fields for ground gained jumping over its last two or three runs in today's code, and steps up two furlongs or more. More obstacles, more to gain.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_lgj_pct_avg3 >= 0.65 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 440

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 1,621 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -4.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6910.93

   Later half9300.96

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 1.03 on 527 bets, by period 0.87 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return +6.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.17. Zone: all. On IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2420.87

   Later half2851.17

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.94 on 1,358 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -6.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5850.93

   Later half7730.94

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [14/1 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.939 on 1358 bets