IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early KILLED amber

   because NEGATIVE: the remark says it travelled well last time, it was in the slowest quarter over the first third, and it was beaten. It looked full of running because it had done no work.

   race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.91 on 267 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.99. info

   Betfair SP return -10.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1320.82

   Later half1350.99

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.76 on 170 bets, by period 0.73 · 0.79. info

   Betfair SP return -27.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half610.73

   Later half1090.79

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.22 on 97 bets, by period 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return +20.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half710.93

   Later half26–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.86 on 256 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -20.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1260.80

   Later half1300.93

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.90 on 225 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -5.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1100.84

   Later half1150.96

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.221 on 97 bets