Threads · position · IQ44-big-move-mid-race-then-faded
IQ44: big move mid race then faded
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 692 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ44: big move mid race then faded KILLED red
because Last run: made up three or more places through the middle third, then lost places and was in the slowest quarter over the final third. The move was made too soon and cost the finish; the form shows only a beaten horse.
race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 3 AND l_gained_final < 0 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 692 bets, by period 1.25 · 0.82. info
Betfair SP return +4.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ44: big move mid race then faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3351.25Later half3570.82Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ44: big move mid race then faded Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 692 bets
Where it started
Last run: made up three or more places through the middle third, then lost places and was in the slowest quarter over the final third. The move was made too soon and cost the finish; the form shows only a beaten horse.