IQ51: costly jumping in character

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ51: costly jumping in character SHADOW

   because NEGATIVE: the same last run from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the worse 40%. It is what the horse is.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.00 on 2,406 bets, by period 1.00. info

   Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ51: costly jumping in character

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2,4061.00

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.04 on 1,731 bets, by period 1.04. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ51: costly jumping in character

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,7311.04

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.80 on 675 bets, by period 0.80. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ51: costly jumping in character

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago6750.80

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.08 on 1,396 bets, by period 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return -13.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ51: costly jumping in character

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year1,3961.08

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ51: costly jumping in character Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ51: costly jumping in character Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 0.997 on 2406 (GB 1.043, IRE 0.801), p 0.5054 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On IQ51: costly jumping in character

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (IQ51: costly jumping in character) pointed the predicted way (negative) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 0.997 on 2406 bets (p 0.505, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character

10. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On IQ51: costly jumping in character