IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day SHADOW

   because C: failed to finish last time in today's code; earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index, and this run was no more than 0.15 below its own average.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.09 on 865 bets, by period 1.09. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago8651.09

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.13 on 675 bets, by period 1.13. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago6751.13

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.93 on 190 bets, by period 0.93. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1900.93

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.15 on 490 bets, by period 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return -19.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year4901.15

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.091 on 865 (GB 1.13, IRE 0.931), p 0.2792 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ57-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-normal-day (IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.091 on 865 bets (p 0.279, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ57-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-normal-day

10. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On IQ57: failed to finish poor jumper normal day