Threads · pulled-up-overlay · IQ63a-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-system, 14-1 or shorter
IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [broad] RED A/E 0.523 on 63 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter KILLED red
because [system, 14-1 or shorter] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.52 on 63 bets, by period 0.18. info
Betfair SP return -35.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half410.18Later half22–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.523 on 63 bets
Where it started
[system, 14-1 or shorter] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.