IQ93: game when challenged

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ93: game when challenged PROMISING negative

   because Jumps: the looser reading. In an earlier jumps run it answered a challenge or went down fighting, and it has never folded.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.96 on 1,918 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ93: game when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,1581.00

   Later half7600.89

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   likely to be taken on today: A/E 0.93 on 1,068 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -18.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ93: game when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6570.96

   Later half4110.88

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.97 on 797 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return -1.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ93: game when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5251.01

   Later half2720.91

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   stiff finish: A/E 0.91 on 518 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.59. info

   Betfair SP return -5.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.59 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ93: game when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3161.08

   Later half2020.59

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.95 on 1,634 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -7.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ93: game when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half9811.00

   Later half6530.89

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ93: game when challenged Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [likely to be taken on today] NEGATIVE A/E 0.93 on 1068 bets