S1: chase completed large negative

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   S1: chase completed large negative SHADOW

   because Shock test S1-chase-completed-large-negative (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)

   code = 'Chase' AND finished = 1 AND s <= -1.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.00 on 84 bets, by period 1.00. info

   Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago841.00

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.08 on 64 bets, by period 1.08. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago641.08

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.66 on 20 bets. info

   Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago20–

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.22 on 81 bets, by period 1.22. info

   Betfair SP return +51.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year811.22

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery, error in the remark: A/E 0.99 on 31 bets. info

   Betfair SP return -53.4%. Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year31–

7. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery, no error in the remark: A/E 1.64 on 36 bets. info

   Betfair SP return +142.7%. Zone: all. On S1: chase completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year36–

8. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S1: chase completed large negative Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

9. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S1: chase completed large negative Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.001 on 84 (GB 1.082, IRE 0.656), p 0.5459 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

10. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

    forward check refused. error

    Zone: forward. On S1: chase completed large negative

11. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

    S1-chase-completed-large-negative (S1: chase completed large negative) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.001 on 84 bets (p 0.546, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

    result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom S1-chase-completed-large-negative