Threads · shock · S4-chase-completed-large-positive
S4: chase completed large positive
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: S4-chase-completed-large-positive (S4: chase completed large positive) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.174 on 156 bets (p 0.218, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
S4: chase completed large positive SHADOW
because Shock test S4-chase-completed-large-positive (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
code = 'Chase' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.17 on 156 bets, by period 1.17. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S4: chase completed large positive
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1561.17Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 1.22 on 117 bets, by period 1.22. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S4: chase completed large positive
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1171.22Last year0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 0.98 on 39 bets. info
Zone: all. On S4: chase completed large positive
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago39–Last year0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 0.58 on 107 bets, by period 0.58. info
Betfair SP return -24.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S4: chase completed large positive
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago0–Last year1070.58Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
S4: chase completed large positive Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
S4: chase completed large positive Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.174 on 156 (GB 1.224, IRE 0.983), p 0.2181 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
S4-chase-completed-large-positive (S4: chase completed large positive) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.174 on 156 bets (p 0.218, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.
result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom S4-chase-completed-large-positive
Where it started
Shock test S4-chase-completed-large-positive (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)