S5: hurdle completed large negative

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   S5: hurdle completed large negative SHADOW

   because Shock test S5-hurdle-completed-large-negative (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)

   code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s <= -1.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.20 on 239 bets, by period 1.20. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S5: hurdle completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2391.20

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.14 on 165 bets, by period 1.14. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S5: hurdle completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1651.14

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.38 on 74 bets, by period 1.38. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S5: hurdle completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago741.38

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.26 on 266 bets, by period 1.26. info

   Betfair SP return +4.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S5: hurdle completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year2661.26

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S5: hurdle completed large negative Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S5: hurdle completed large negative Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.203 on 239 (GB 1.142, IRE 1.375), p 0.1787 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward check refused. error

   Zone: forward. On S5: hurdle completed large negative

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   S5-hurdle-completed-large-negative (S5: hurdle completed large negative) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.203 on 239 bets (p 0.179, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom S5-hurdle-completed-large-negative