S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper KILLED

   because Shock test S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)

   code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s BETWEEN -0.75 AND 0.75 AND e <= -0.2555054705107118

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.00 on 2,207 bets, by period 1.00. info

   Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2,2071.00

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.03 on 1,613 bets, by period 1.03. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,6131.03

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.85 on 594 bets, by period 0.85. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago5940.85

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 0.95 on 1,827 bets, by period 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -11.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago3–

   Last year1,8240.95

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.996 on 2207 (GB 1.033, IRE 0.849), p 0.534 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests