S7: hurdle not completed large negative

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   S7: hurdle not completed large negative KILLED

   because Shock test S7-hurdle-not-completed-large-negative (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)

   code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 0 AND s <= -1.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.71 on 273 bets, by period 0.71. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S7: hurdle not completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2730.71

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 0.79 on 187 bets, by period 0.79. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S7: hurdle not completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1870.79

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.53 on 86 bets, by period 0.53. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On S7: hurdle not completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago860.53

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.17 on 256 bets, by period 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +89.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S7: hurdle not completed large negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1–

   Last year2551.18

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   S7: hurdle not completed large negative Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   S7: hurdle not completed large negative Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.712 on 273 (GB 0.793, IRE 0.534), p 0.941 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   S7-hurdle-not-completed-large-negative (S7: hurdle not completed large negative) was predicted positive but went the other way on the sealed holdout: A/E 0.71 on 273 bets.

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom S7-hurdle-not-completed-large-negative